With the U.S. network Upfronts starting next Monday, speculation is rife among industry members as to whether we’ll see increases, decreases or status quo advertising revenues.
Last year’s Upfronts saw a strong in increase advertising prices over 2010-2011 (25-40 percent in some cases), but most analysts are predicting smaller upfront revenue gains this year, with Wall Street analysts estimating one to four percent for the broadcast networks.
Jack Myers, media economist and publisher of the Jack Myers Media Business Report, admitted that his predictions for 2012-2013 are a bit more modest – “I’m projecting between minus two and plus two percent increases in volume, and that’s based on speaking with buyers.”
While Myers suspects that some of the broadcast nets’ Upfronts money will go to online video instead, that’s a good thing for the broadcast nets, too. “A lot of the money that’s shifting to the online marketplace is shifting to the network’s own video assets – like ABC.com, CBS’s TV.com and Hulu. About 50 percent of the money spent on online video will go to the broadcast and cable networks, and the lion’s share of that goes to broadcast,” he said.
“Any way, plus or minus two percent isn’t doom or gloom. You also have to keep in mind that Upfronts volume doesn’t tell the whole year’s story – it’s only part of the story. There’s also the scatter market, and what tends to happen is if the Upfronts market is up, the scatter market is down a bit and vice versa.”
Media analysts expect that strongest Upfronts numbers (and gains) are likely to come from CBS. Myers concurred. “On a cost-per-thousand [CPM] basis, Wall Street analysts are projecting CBS at eight to 11 percent [and] hat’s very possible. CPM growths overall will be in mid-single digits for the broadcast networks, with CBS on the higher side. ABC is having a pretty good run, too. Fox is the only one that could see problems, with American Idol down 30-40 percent.”
Though the CW has also seen its ratings dip recently, Myers predicts that the CW’s relatively new president, Mark Pedowitz, could breathe new life into the net. “Advertisers are not going to punish the CW for its ratings problems this year,” he said.
As for the age-old question of whether the Upfronts model is still current, Myers says the proof is in the “newfronts.”
“In the last few weeks, we’ve seen the online video ‘newfronts,’ and every cable network has held their Upfronts. There have been nearly a hundred between February and May. Ten years ago everyone was calling for the elimination of the Upfronts, but we see signs of them getting stronger, not weaker.
“When you see companies like YouTube, Vevo and AOL making seven-figure investments in newfront presentations, it really ups the game for broadcast networks to be active.
“In the past couple of years, some of the network’s downgraded their investments in the Upfronts – notably NBC and ABC, which continues to have a simple Upfronts without the dog-and-pony, the celebrities and the hospitality. But now, there’s increased pressure to compete with the online sector — and the cable networks too — so things may turn around,” he concluded Myers.
May 10, 2012
In last week’s Watercooler, we focused on the comedies that the U.S. networks have commissioned for the 2012-2013 season. Now it’s time to get more serious. This week, we turn our attention to some of the 43 drama pilots requested by the nets.
The usual genres — legal, hospital and cops — are, of course, represented on this year’s roster. Among the legal series are Fox’s Guilty, which revolves around a defense attorney who’s wrongfully convicted of fraud and CBS’s Baby Big Shot, about a woman from a blue-collar background who winds up in a white-shoe Manhattan law firm.
Medical dramas come in the form of the CW’s First Cut, about a medical student who finds that the hospital world is a bit too similar to high school, Fox’s Mob Doctor about a woman who’s forced to moonlight as a doctor for the mafia and NBC’s County, which takes place in an under-funded, frenetic L.A. County hospital.
But cop dramas outnumber all the rest — with CBS taking the lead in that category. Five out of seven of The Eye’s commissioned dramas revolve around cops — including Widow Detective (about a police detective who becomes a surrogate husband and father to the families of his deceased partners), Applebaum (about a stay-at-home mom who becomes a private eye), an Untitled Pileggi/Ralph Lamb Project (based on the true story of a rodeo cowboy turned Vegas sheriff), Golden Boy (which tracks a cop’s meteoric rise from officer to police commissioner) and Trooper (about a mother turned New York State trooper). Seems mom/cops are especially popular at CBS this year.
ABC’s got Gotham, about a female cop who discovers a magical world within NYC; and NBC’s got Midnight Sun about an FBI investigation into the disappearance of an Alaskan commune.
NBC’s putting the spotlight on other heroes in uniform with Chicago Fire – a drama from Dick Wolf that revolves around the Windy City’s firefighters.
There are also some soapy dramas being considered — including ABC’s Devious Maids, about four ambitious Beverly Hills maids; Scruples, which centers on a rich and powerful clothing designer; Nashville, a family soap based in the Nashville music scene and Americana, a soap set revolving around a legendary fashion designer, his family and business. (Apparently designers are as popular at ABC as mom-cops are at CBS).
Also interesting, both the ABC and the CW are presenting their own takes on the classic fairytale Beauty and the Beast. ABC’s version is a fantastical re-imagining of the story set in a mythical, dangerous world where a beautiful and tough princess discovers an unlikely connection with a mysterious beast. The CW’s version is loosely based on the CBS drama from the late 1980s, and is described as a modern-day romancer with a procedural twist.
We weren’t necessarily waiting anxiously for a revival of that story, but who knows… it could work.
April 30, 2012
We’ll all have to wait until mid-May to know exactly which of the dozens of pilots commissioned by each of the U.S. TV networks will be lucky enough to make into their new season lineup. And we’ll have to wait even longer– until October–to see which ones will make into full-season orders.
But among the comedy contenders, we’re already seeing plenty of trends.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, it seems the shaky global economy is having an effect on comedy writers, with many pilot stars facing unemployment.
ABC’s Untitled Kari Lizer Project follows a high-powered female executive who find herself unemployed and acting as a stay-at-home mom to two teenagers.
NBC’s Downwardly Mobile revolves around a mobile home park, which many of its residents are forced into thanks to the tough economy.
Over on CBS, an ensemble comedy, now known as the Untitled Louis C.K. and Spike Feresten Project, revolves around a group of young people trying to achieve their creative dreams in tough financial times (a sentiment we expect many viewers can relate to).
Also on CBS, an Untitled Martin Lawrence Project follows a widowed dad who loses his job in construction and decides to join the police academy.
The Eye’s Untitled Larry Dorf and Ben Falcone Project stars a single 37-year-old who loses everything during the real estate collapse and must move in with his parents.
The theme of grown adults moving in with their parents pops up all over the pilots this season. How to Live with Your Parents for the Rest of Your Life, commissioned by ABC, revolves around a single mom who moves in her with her eccentric parents.
Another comedy that involves strange roommate pairings as a result of a financial crises is Fox’s El Jefe, which centers on a guy from a wealthy family who’s kicked out of the family home (for never making his own way) and winds up living with his family’s housekeeper.
Following in the vein of 2011-2012 ABC comedy Suburgatory, the alphabet network has several commissioned pilots that revolve around suburban outcasts. American Judy follows a cosmopolitan woman who becomes a fish out of water in the suburbs and The Manzanis stars Kirstie Alley as the matriarch of an Italian-American family that clashes with their WASPy neighbors in a New Jersey suburb. But the title of strangest suburban residents goes to ABC’s Untitled Dan Fogelman Project, about a New Jersey-based gated community populated by aliens.
In the movie industry, much has been made of the success of Bridesmaids and the commercial appeal of female buddy comedies (a genre traditionally limited to men). It seems the TV industry is also looking to monetize on the “women can be funny” idea, with Super Fun Night, a CBS comedy pilot that revolves around a trio of nerdy friends who embark on a quest to party every Friday night. ABC’s Counter Culture follows three aging sisters who run their family diner in Texas.
Several of comedy’s biggest female stars are behind – and/or starring in – 2012-2013 season pilots. The Office writer Mindy Kaling writes, executive produces and stars in Fox’s Mindy, which is being described as a “Bridget Jones-style” comedy about an OBGYN trying to navigate her personal and professional life.
Tough talking comedienne Sarah Silverman stars (and writes and produces) Susan 313, an NBC comedy pilot loosely based on Silverman’s life, about readjusting to single life after a decade-long relationship.
Everyone’s favorite daytime TV host, Ellen DeGeneres, is executive producing ABC’s The Smart One about a smart woman who goes to work for her less-than-brainy beauty queen sister who’s now a mayor (the show also stars DeGeneres’s wife Portia De Rossi).
And, finally, controversial comedienne Roseanne Barr is also back in primetime, as the star (and co-writer and executive producer) of NBC’s Downwardly Mobile, in which she plays the proprietor of the mobile home park (she stars alongside former Roseanne co-star John Goodman).
Sounds like whatever gets picked up, we’ll have plenty to keep us laughing well into the new year.
April 24, 2012
The Airline Passenger Experience Association’s 2012 TV Market Conference kicks off today in Brighton, England, bringing together buyers, sellers and intermediaries in the world of in-flight entertainment.
As the capacity for TV and film content on airplanes grows, so does this annual event.
“We have 50 [program] distributors this year,” said Leigh Mantle, APEX TV Market Conference chair. ‘We’re growing in terms of the independents. The studios come too, but we’re seeing growth with the independents specifically.”
According to Mantle, TV content is the next big thing for airline entertainment – with more and more airlines asking for full season sets of some of the hottest shows on television.
In previous years, a two-day market preceded it a one-day conference, but this year, conferences will take place concurrently with the market, which runs through Wednesday.
Conferences include tomorrow’s “International TV Distribution Update,” with Stewart Clarke, editorial director, Television Business International. The session will include news from the recently wrapped MIP-TV market.
On Wednesday, “Passenger Behavior & Preference,” will feature executives from SpaFax and help distributors provide the type of programming to offer and content service providers and airlines to make the best selections.
“Engaging the Connected Generation” will cover the latest trends in multiplatform TV content – from VoD to made-for-web series.
Conference booth space was sold out prior to the event (a full list of attendees is below).
Apex’s next big event – the Apex 2012 Expo will take place September 17-20, in Long Beach, California.
EXHIBITORS:
20th Century Fox
ABC Commercial/Australian Broadcasting Corp
All3Media International
Alphanim (Gaumont Group)
Ampersand
Arcadia Entertainment Group
Arte France
Atlantyca Entertainment
BBC Worldwide
CBS Studios International
CNBC
Cotterill & Associates
Deutsche Welle
Discovery Communications
DRG
Entertainment in Motion
EuroArts Music International
Europe Images International
Fairdeal Multimedia Pvt Ltd
FremantleMedia
IMG Media
Indigo Film & Television
ITV Studios Global Entertainment
Just For Laughs
Library Media Solutions
Mediatoon Distribution
Monster Entertainment
myZen TV
National Film Board of Canada
National Geographic Channel Europe
NBC Universal
Off The Fence
Parthenon Entertainment Ltd.
PGS Entertainment
Pilot Film & Television Productions Ltd
Purple Inflight Entertainment Pvt. Ltd.
Skyline IFE Ltd.
Sony Pictures Releasing
Sunset+Vine International
The Television Syndication Company
Trace Sports
Turner Inflight Services
TV5Monde
Upside Television
VPS Communications
Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
Warner Bros.
Wide
Zodiak Rights
REGISTERED AIRLINES:
Air Canada
Air France
Air New Zealand
American Airlines
bmi
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited
China Airlines
EL AL
Emirates
Finnair
Gulf Air
KLM Royal Dutch Airlines
Lufthansa German Airlines
Malaysia Airlines
Norwegian Air Shuttle
Oman Air
Qatar Airways
TAP Portugal
Turkish Airlines
Virgin America
Virgin Atlantic Airways
REGISTERED CSPS (a.k.a. intermediaries):
Aerogroup
AMP International
France Vision Services
IFE Services Ltd
Images in Motion, Inc.
Inflight Dublin
Inflight Productions
Inflight Television International Ltd (iTV)
Interact
Mezzo Movies Ltd.
OnBoard International
Phantom Media
Spafax
Stellar
The In-Flight Entertainment Company
Touch Inflight Solutions
April 16, 2012
MipDoc concluded about a week ago in Cannes, but there’s little rest in store for documentary sellers and buyers, who will attend Canada’s Hot Docs, taking place from April 26-May 6 across Toronto.
While MipDoc is purely a market, Hot Docs is a bonafide film festival with a market component. Charlotte Cook, program director, said that this year Hot Docs added a new film category entitled “Rise Against,” which includes documentaries that deal with activism in some ways, often as a result of the financial crises around the world.
Of the 189 documentaries that will be screened at Hot Docs, 38 will be world premieres, and they will hail from 51 countries (Germany, the U.S., Canada and Scandinavia are prolific this year, Cook said).
On the market front, Elizabeth Radshaw, Hot Docs Forum and Market director, expects a larger attendance. She says online platforms and VOD platforms like Netflix and Hulu will attend. “There are also aggregators there to purchase documentaries for different platforms,” she added.
As part of their conference program, Radshaw said, Hot Docs would like to help filmmakers figure out how exactly to take advantage of digital distribution. They’re running a new thematic program called “Doc of the Future,” which explores how – thanks in large part to social media – filmmakers can become much more closely connected to audiences than ever before.
The connectivity, Radshaw explains, can be financially advantageous to filmmakers, who can get crowd-funding for their products, and can also tap into an additional source of revenue by selling films directly online.
In addition to the two-day pitching event known as Hot Docs Forum (May 2 and 3), and the screenings, Hot Docs offers “awesome networking activities, including cocktail hours and happy hours,” Radshaw said. There are happy hours every day from Sunday, April 29 through Friday, April 4 between 5 and 6:30 p.m.
But Radshaw said the most intense networking days tend to coincide with Hot Docs Forum. “It’s in the hallways of the forum where some of the best meetings take place.”
When asked about the differences between MipDoc and Hot Docs, Radshaw said, “It’s totally different. I’ve gone to MIP for years, and although I love it, it’s really intensive, with back-to-back 30-minute meetings that require running from booth to booth. This is not that. The industry events at Hot Docs are more approachable and casual. As much as you hear people pitching their projects and trying to make deals happen, they’re also talking about the films that they’ve seen. It lends a different atmosphere,” she said.
“But whether it’s a filmmaker selling to a broadcaster or to distributors or new platforms, there are absolutely deals being done. The event also provides opportunities for international co-productions because there are so many international delegations,” she said.
As far as the conference schedule goes, there will be half a day dedicated to digital distribution, half-day workshops on how to write a business proposal and a half-day workshop on interactive docs, among others.
April 9, 2012
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