Water Cooler http://videoageinternational.com/blog5 Weekly Feature from Video Age International Thu, 10 May 2012 15:33:26 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0 An Upfront Look at the Upfronts: Nets Gaining TV Losses http://videoageinternational.com/blog5/2012/05/10/an-upfront-look-at-the-upfronts-nets-gaining-tv-losses/ http://videoageinternational.com/blog5/2012/05/10/an-upfront-look-at-the-upfronts-nets-gaining-tv-losses/#comments Thu, 10 May 2012 14:02:19 +0000 Administrator http://videoageinternational.com/blog5/?p=827 With the U.S. network Upfronts starting next Monday, speculation is rife among industry members as to whether we’ll see increases, decreases or status quo advertising revenues.

Last year’s Upfronts saw a strong in increase advertising prices over 2010-2011 (25-40 percent in some cases), but most analysts are predicting smaller upfront revenue gains this year, with Wall Street analysts estimating one to four percent for the broadcast networks.

Jack Myers, media economist and publisher of the Jack Myers Media Business Report, admitted that his predictions for 2012-2013 are a bit more modest – “I’m projecting between minus two and plus two percent increases in volume, and that’s based on speaking with buyers.”

While Myers suspects that some of the broadcast nets’ Upfronts money will go to online video instead, that’s a good thing for the broadcast nets, too. “A lot of the money that’s shifting to the online marketplace is shifting to the network’s own video assets – like ABC.com, CBS’s TV.com and Hulu. About 50 percent of the money spent on online video will go to the broadcast and cable networks, and the lion’s share of that goes to broadcast,” he said.

“Any way, plus or minus two percent isn’t doom or gloom. You also have to keep in mind that Upfronts volume doesn’t tell the whole year’s story – it’s only part of the story. There’s also the scatter market, and what tends to happen is if the Upfronts market is up, the scatter market is down a bit and vice versa.”

Media analysts expect that strongest Upfronts numbers (and gains) are likely to come from CBS. Myers concurred. “On a cost-per-thousand [CPM] basis, Wall Street analysts are projecting CBS at eight to 11 percent [and] hat’s very possible. CPM growths overall will be in mid-single digits for the broadcast networks, with CBS on the higher side. ABC is having a pretty good run, too. Fox is the only one that could see problems, with American Idol down 30-40 percent.”

Though the CW has also seen its ratings dip recently, Myers predicts that the CW’s relatively new president, Mark Pedowitz, could breathe new life into the net. “Advertisers are not going to punish the CW for its ratings problems this year,” he said.

As for the age-old question of whether the Upfronts model is still current, Myers says the proof is in the “newfronts.”

“In the last few weeks, we’ve seen the online video ‘newfronts,’ and every cable network has held their Upfronts. There have been nearly a hundred between February and May. Ten years ago everyone was calling for the elimination of the Upfronts, but we see signs of them getting stronger, not weaker.

“When you see companies like YouTube, Vevo and AOL making seven-figure investments in newfront presentations, it really ups the game for broadcast networks to be active.

“In the past couple of years, some of the network’s downgraded their investments in the Upfronts – notably NBC and ABC, which continues to have a simple Upfronts without the dog-and-pony, the celebrities and the hospitality. But now, there’s increased pressure to compete with the online sector — and the cable networks too — so things may turn around,” he concluded Myers.

]]>
http://videoageinternational.com/blog5/2012/05/10/an-upfront-look-at-the-upfronts-nets-gaining-tv-losses/feed/ 0
Drama at the L.A. Screenings http://videoageinternational.com/blog5/2012/04/30/drama-at-the-l-a-screenings/ http://videoageinternational.com/blog5/2012/04/30/drama-at-the-l-a-screenings/#comments Mon, 30 Apr 2012 16:36:09 +0000 Administrator http://videoageinternational.com/blog5/?p=824 In last week’s Watercooler, we focused on the comedies that the U.S. networks have commissioned for the 2012-2013 season. Now it’s time to get more serious. This week, we turn our attention to some of the 43 drama pilots requested by the nets.

The usual genres — legal, hospital and cops — are, of course, represented on this year’s roster. Among the legal series are Fox’s Guilty, which revolves around a defense attorney who’s wrongfully convicted of fraud and CBS’s Baby Big Shot, about a woman from a blue-collar background who winds up in a white-shoe Manhattan law firm.

Medical dramas come in the form of the CW’s First Cut, about a medical student who finds that the hospital world is a bit too similar to high school, Fox’s Mob Doctor about a woman who’s forced to moonlight as a doctor for the mafia and NBC’s County, which takes place in an under-funded, frenetic L.A. County hospital.

But cop dramas outnumber all the rest — with CBS taking the lead in that category. Five out of seven of The Eye’s commissioned dramas revolve around cops — including Widow Detective (about a police detective who becomes a surrogate husband and father to the families of his deceased partners), Applebaum (about a stay-at-home mom who becomes a private eye), an Untitled Pileggi/Ralph Lamb Project (based on the true story of a rodeo cowboy turned Vegas sheriff), Golden Boy (which tracks a cop’s meteoric rise from officer to police commissioner) and Trooper (about a mother turned New York State trooper). Seems mom/cops are especially popular at CBS this year.

ABC’s got Gotham, about a female cop who discovers a magical world within NYC; and NBC’s got Midnight Sun about an FBI investigation into the disappearance of an Alaskan commune.

NBC’s putting the spotlight on other heroes in uniform with Chicago Fire – a drama from Dick Wolf that revolves around the Windy City’s firefighters.

There are also some soapy dramas being considered  — including ABC’s Devious Maids, about four ambitious Beverly Hills maids; Scruples, which centers on a rich and powerful clothing designer; Nashville, a family soap based in the Nashville music scene and Americana, a soap set revolving around a legendary fashion designer, his family and business. (Apparently designers are as popular at ABC as mom-cops are at CBS).

Also interesting, both the ABC and the CW are presenting their own takes on the classic fairytale Beauty and the Beast. ABC’s version is a fantastical re-imagining of the story set in a mythical, dangerous world where a beautiful and tough princess discovers an unlikely connection with a mysterious beast. The CW’s version is loosely based on the CBS drama from the late 1980s, and is described as a modern-day romancer with a procedural twist.

We weren’t necessarily waiting anxiously for a revival of that story, but who knows… it could work.

]]>
http://videoageinternational.com/blog5/2012/04/30/drama-at-the-l-a-screenings/feed/ 0